Alaves' recent form (8 goals scored, only 4 conceded across their last 6 matches) outpaces Getafe's more erratic run (5 scored, 7 conceded), and home advantage at Mendizorrotza is a meaningful edge in a low-scoring fixture. The market implies roughly 43% for a home win, but Alaves' superior defensive solidity in recent games and H2H patterns — four of the last six meetings produced under 2.5 goals — support a narrow home victory.