The market prices this as a mild Villarreal favour (2.25 vs 3.10) but Alavés have been exceptional over their last six games across all competitions, conceding only 3 goals, and their early-season xG numbers (1.97 for, just 0.33 against) suggest a genuinely compact, dangerous side at Mendizorrotza. However, with only a 2-game sample size in La Liga, those signals are noisy, and the H2H shows four of the last six meetings have ended level or with Villarreal winning — back a tight, hard-to-call contest.