Roma are priced as clear favourites at home (1.62) and their H2H record at the Olimpico is strong — three Roma home fixtures in this dataset yielded 4-0, 1-0 and 1-1, with just one draw. Fiorentina's recent form is defensively tighter (avg 1.17 conceded vs Roma's leaky 2.17), but their attack is less potent (1.67 per game) and they have lost three of their last six. This is Matchday 1, so samples are pre-season thin and the market's implied ~62% for Roma deserves cautious endorsement rather than aggressive divergence.