The market prices Atlético Madrid as a strong favourite at 1.30 (implied ~77%), reflecting the enormous quality gap between a consistent La Liga top-four contender hosting at the Metropolitano and a newly promoted or lower-table Málaga side. With no season data yet available, the market odds are the primary anchor, and they point firmly toward an Atlético win with a clean sheet — Simeone's sides are historically one of the stingiest defences in Spain.