Athletic Club arrive bottom of the table with zero points, two defeats, a goals-against average of 2.5 and a heavily depleted squad — six first-team players are out, including several defenders. Celta hold home advantage, a 1-point edge in the standings, and recent H2H wins on their own patch (2-0 in December 2025, 2-1 in May 2024). The market reflects genuine parity (home 2.38, away 3.10) but Athletic's injury crisis and dreadful early-season defensive xG tilt the balance toward the hosts.