Real Madrid are clear market favourites at 1.44 and the H2H record strongly supports them — they have won five of the last six meetings, including a 2-0 win at RCDE Stadium in May 2026 and a 4-1 thrashing at the Bernabéu in 2024. Madrid's recent form (5W 1D in last 6, averaging 2.67 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded) is meaningfully stronger than Espanyol's mixed record. Despite several Madrid absences (Militão, Mendy, Rodrygo, Tchouaméni), their squad depth at elite level is sufficient to dominate a newly promoted/mid-table Espanyol side whose xG data is based on just one match.