The market firmly favours Lorient at home (1.80 vs 4.50), and H2H strongly supports that lean — Lorient have won three of the last five meetings, including two 2-0 home wins at the Moustoir. However, this is only Round 2 with a sample of one league game each, so form and xG carry little weight; the market and H2H are the primary anchors. Troyes' xG data is contradictory (0.42 for, 1.80 against on a single-game sample) and four key players are injured, which moderately tilts the balance further toward Lorient.