Manchester City's H2H record at the Etihad against Bournemouth is dominant — two 3-1 wins in the last two home meetings — and despite a mixed recent form run, City retain structural quality that Bournemouth struggle to match on the road. However, City's own xG data is a concern: their avgFor of 1.34 trails their avgConceded of 1.77, suggesting genuine defensive vulnerability, and four first-team wide players are unavailable (Doku, Savinho, Nunes, McAidoo), meaningfully blunting their attacking width. Bournemouth arrive in excellent recent form (W4 in last 5 meaningful outings) with a stunning scored:conceded ratio over that stretch, so this is a tighter contest than the 1.48 price implies.