The head-to-head record between these sides is strikingly low-scoring — three of the last five meetings ended 0-0 or 1-1, including two draws at the Maradona — which strongly suggests a tight, contained affair. It is only Round 2, so the xG sample (just one game each) is far too small to weight heavily; the market's near-flat pricing (2.5 home, 3.0 draw, 3.1 away) correctly reflects genuine uncertainty. Napoli carry quality with De Bruyne pulling the strings, but four absences in defence and midfield blunt their advantage.