Racing Santander carry the stronger xG profile (1.59 avgFor vs Elche's 1.23) and a meaningful home advantage at El Sardinero, where they've won two of the last three H2H meetings. Elche arrive with the worst goals-against average in this sample (3.0 per game in La Liga so far) and a leaky goalkeeper rating (5.9), suggesting their defence has been genuinely poor rather than just unlucky. The market prices this as an open contest with home slight favourites at 2.10, which feels broadly fair but slightly understates Racing's home threat.