The market prices this as a near-coinflip tilting slightly toward Rayo as home favourites (implied ~45% home win vs ~30% away win), but Alavés arrive in significantly better form — unbeaten in five of their last six with a dominant 3-0 opening-day win, while Rayo have lost five of their last six and conceded 12 in that stretch. The small home advantage at Butarque and tight head-to-head history (four of six H2H meetings settled by one goal) keep this close.