Real Sociedad are rock bottom with zero points and a -4 goal difference after two games, but their xG against (2.19) slightly overstates how open they've been — early-season sample of just two games is noisy. The market still has them as mild favourites at home (1.91 vs 4.00), yet Espanyol's underlying xG numbers (1.30 for, 1.50 against) and superior current league standing suggest the visitors are genuinely competitive here. With both sides at an early-season stage where samples are unreliable, the H2H showing two draws in the last two meetings and genuine parity on quality, a draw is the most defensible call.