Real Betis arrive in significantly better recent form (4W from last 6, averaging 1.83 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded) versus Valencia's inconsistent run and anemic underlying xG of just 0.58 per game. With no market odds to anchor from, the form and xG differential genuinely point to Betis, who also have a day's extra rest. This is Round 1 with tiny samples, so confidence is kept modest.