Inter Miami's xG allowed (2.59 per game) is alarmingly high and their recent form is poor (one win in six), yet Montreal is a significantly weaker attacking side averaging just 0.83 goals and 1.19 xG per game. The H2H record strongly favours Miami — five wins in the last six meetings, including a 4-1 and a 4-2 — and at home Miami's attacking firepower, led by their elite creative midfielder, should overcome their defensive frailties against a Montreal attack that struggles to convert.