New England's xG data is the standout signal here: across their last 3 matches they are generating 2.76 xG per game while conceding just 0.85, suggesting they are significantly outperforming Columbus on underlying quality. Columbus's own xG sample (1 match, 0.30 xG for vs 1.16 against) is tiny but alarming, pointing to a side struggling to create and vulnerable defensively. With no market odds to anchor against, these xG figures — combined with New England's superior goals-conceded average (1.17 vs Columbus's 1.67) — tip the balance clearly toward the away side.