This is Round 3 of the season — tiny samples for both sides make form and xG almost meaningless as predictors. The market is tighter than it looks: Villarreal are priced as mild favourites (2.25) away but Alaves have started strongly (W-D, 4 goals scored, 1 conceded in 2 games) and H2H at Mendizorrotza has produced draws in two of the last three meetings there. The implied probabilities across the three outcomes are remarkably even, pointing squarely at a competitive, low-scoring contest.