Aston Villa are in serious disarray: five losses in their last six, conceding 15 goals across those games (2.5 per match), and a catastrophic opening-day 0-4 defeat in their only league outing this season. They are also decimated by injuries — both first-choice goalkeepers (Martinez, Onana), their top striker (Watkins), Abraham, Bailey and Gomes are all out, stripping the squad of depth at every key position. Arsenal, by contrast, opened with a win and their key creative and goal-scoring contributors are active and rated highly. The market reflects this ruthlessly: Arsenal at 1.44 implies ~69% probability, and the evidence supports backing that fully.