The market prices Atalanta as clear home favourites at 1.85, and the balance of signals supports that lean: Atalanta won their opening fixture and carry stronger recent form (W W D W W in their last five before the loss), while Bologna failed to score in Round 1 and arrive with a more negative recent run. However, the H2H is genuinely intriguing — Bologna have won three of the last six meetings, including a victory at this very ground last May, which warns against overconfidence. Atalanta's xG sample is just one game and very noisy (a freakish 2.7 xGA in one outing), so lean on the market price and form over that single-game xG outlier.