Atletico opened with a clean sheet win (2-0) and carry the Metropolitano fortress advantage against a Villarreal side whose xG data from matchday one is deeply concerning — they generated just 0.67 xG for while conceding 1.87, suggesting their 2-2 draw was built on overperformance and they remain defensively fragile. The market prices Atletico as clear favourites (implied ~54%), and the quality/home-form gap narrowly justifies siding with them, though Villarreal's excellent recent six-game form including a stunning 5-1 demolition of Atletico in May 2026 keeps confidence modest.