Barcelona's underlying numbers are exceptional: an xG of 4.14 per game against an xG against of just 0.46 in their two La Liga matches, with two clean sheets and 7 goals scored. Rayo arrive with an xG for of only 1.16, a leaky defence (xG against 2.09), no wins in their last five across all competitions, and multiple defensive absences. The market at 1.12 implies ~89% probability — marginally stretched, but the quality and xG gap here genuinely supports a dominant home win.