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Bayer Leverkusen are priced at 1.48 — a strong implied probability of ~68% — reflecting their squad quality and BayArena fortress advantage. Their recent form (5W 1L 1D across last six with 12 goals and only 4 conceded) is markedly superior to Union Berlin's erratic run (2W 2D 2L, 14 conceded in six). The H2H is decisive: Leverkusen have won four of the last six meetings, including a 4-0 and 2-0 at home, with Union's lone Berlin win in 2026 the only blemish.
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Probabilities implied by market odds (margin removed). Full probabilities, IQ pick & BTTS are IQ PRO.