The market makes Chelsea clear favourites at 1.83, implying ~55% probability, and their recent form average of 2.67 goals scored per game dwarfs Fulham's 1.17. This is Matchday 1 with no season stats or xG available, so squad quality and pre-season form are the primary differentiators — Chelsea's stronger depth and attacking output tip the balance away from home. Fulham also lose key centre-back Andersen and midfielder Cairney to injury, weakening both their defensive structure and creative options at the start of the campaign.