Houston enter this match in exceptional form — five wins and a draw in their last six, conceding just one goal across that run, with an xG-against of only 0.40 per game suggesting their defensive solidity is genuine, not lucky. San Jose, by contrast, have lost five of their last six with an xG-against of 2.21, indicating their defensive problems are structural. The quality gap between the league's top side and a team shipping goals at that rate is substantial.
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Probabilities implied by market odds (margin removed). Full probabilities, IQ pick & BTTS are IQ PRO.

