Osasuna's xG data (1.69 for, 0.71 against) over their two league games points to a side outperforming their raw goal numbers defensively and creating well at El Sadar. Getafe arrive with a negative goal difference, a leaky defence (1.5 goals conceded per game this season) and two key attackers — Juanmi and C. Uche — ruled out, weakening their already modest attacking threat (0.5 goals per game in La Liga so far). The market's implied home-win probability sits around 45%, which feels slightly low given Osasuna's home xG superiority and Getafe's injury-hit forward line.