Celta Vigo arrive in excellent recent form (W3 D3 in last six, conceding just 1.0 per game on average) against a Valencia side with a patchy recent record (W2 D1 L3) and a significantly depleted squad with six players out. The H2H record is strongly in Celta's favour: they have won four of the last six meetings, including a 4-1 win at Mestalla in January 2026 and a 2-3 away victory at Valencia in April 2026. The market's mild lean toward Valencia (2.45 vs 3.00 for Celta) appears inflated by home bias given these signals.